Then I guess it’s time to reveal my theory.
If you are to reveal anything please do so before the voting occurs.
I’ll have to think a bit about whether or not I’ll accept or reject the proposal. I have a bad habit of being overly trusting of people that trust me when nobody else will, which has been taken advantage of in past games. I’ll let you know what conclusion I come to when I vote.
Komari-chan puts away her still half-full bag of popcorn
Somehow, my popcorn isn’t tasty today. I wonder why~. Ah, I got it!
It’s becaue I’ve been watching a complete farce.
Masato-kun voicing suspicion of Kyousuke-san.
Kyousuke-san openly suspecting Kuu-chan and threatening to distrust Masato-kun.
Masato-kun giving in and both of them ganging up on Kuu-chan.
Masato-kun throwing out Kuu-chan, then suggesting a team built on contradictions.
So in the end, a lot of suspicion is forced onto Kuu-chan while Masato-kun has an excuse to not include Kyousuke-san. But of course. Once the mission fails, Kyousuke will look like the most trustworthy among the 4 who went on Mission 2.
But I should start from the beginning. This theory is based on two assumptions:
- Just as the outcome of Mission 2 suggests, there was exactly 1 spy among the 4 I sent on the mission and 3 spies among the remaining 6.
- Kuu-chan’s team consisted of 4 Little Busters.
To remind you, this is the Mission 2 team:
When Kuu-chan presented her team, I had to start from zero, so I took took the following approach:
Assume that Kuu-chan’s team has no spies in it and watch how the voting plays out to either confirm or deny it. If the assumption is true, the following things are true as well:
- By process of elimination, Kengo-kun(@Karifean), Masato-kun(@Mogaoscar), and Haru-chan(@EisenKoubu) must definitely be spies.
- There is 1 spy among Mio-chan(@Glenn_Irish), Kyousuke-san(@Natsume), and Riki-kun(@RyuuTamotsu)
So the assumed spies will try hard to get the team rejected and the one who failed Mission 2 will try to blame someone else.
Then following happened:
Kyousuke-san(@Natsume), who had voiced suspicion of Mio-chan for not talking much before Mission 2, started putting even more pressure on her. Note that he himself was also holding back in terms of communication, as Rin-chan noticed. He named roleplay reasons for his own silence. He later voiced suspicion against Haru-chan, who had also gone silent.
Oh, and he also indirectly displayed trust towards Masato, the next leader in line.
Kengo-kun, who had initially declared his trust for Kuu-chan, turned completely against her, saying he had tricked her and was suspecting her all along, calling her suspicious. Kyousuke-san immediately jumped on the bandwagon of suspecting her. He also jumped on the bandwagon of showing a bit of trust towards me again after Masato-kun, Rin-chan and Yui-chan started doing so. Agreeing to popular and obvious opinions is one way of currying favor…
Masato-kun presented a statistical approach, effectively showing that Kuu-chan’s team has too high a risk of failure to ever be approved of by anyone. According to my own calculations, the team constellation indeed has highest chances of having a spy on it among the possible ones. Statistically, that is.
At that point, most of my suspicions had been confirmed. Masato and Kengo had actively tried to get Kuu-chan’s team rejected. Among the 3 remaining members of the misson 2 team, Kyousuke-san was the only one to do the same. So it was obvious he was the last spy. I had reason enough to vote approve. Since Masato-kun would be the next leader, I had decided to observe him a bit longer to gather more proof.
Strangely, Haru-chan voted approve while Kuu-chan rejected her own team, preventing the mission from happening. As I have mentioned previously, Masato-kun and Kyousuke-san wasted no time to pounce on her.
I expected Masato-kun to only put busters on his team to keep the other spies “clean”. Sure enough, he was the only of my suspects to get into the initial team and made up a reason to not include Kyousuke-san. He even put Kuu-chan on his team only to openly suspect her right after. Why? Because Kyousuke-san, whom he had distrusted for reasons unknown, did not approve? Her reject vote was plain in sight before that.
But what I did not expect was for Masato-kun to suggest Kengo-kun for the team in Kuu-chan’s stead. Not only was Kengo-kun also a spy suspect for me, the statistical chances of the team had also gone down to the same level as Kuu-chan’s. Masato’s team constellation now made no sense in any way.
Maybe he had backed himself into a corner after declaring suspicion of every member of the mission 2 team except for Riki-kun and couldn’t pick any of them. Maybe he tried to throw me off after seeing how I reacted to his suggestion, but that might be arrogant of me to serioiusly assume. Maybe he had a plan for preventing a double reject vote. I don’t know.
I also find it strange that Kengo-kun never called Masato-kun out on his low-probability constellation even though the highest possible probability was promised. He didn’t seem like he would let such things pass back when he had criticized my reasoning.
Well, there you have it. I suspect Masato-kun(@Mogaoscar), Kyousuke-san(@Natsume), Haru-chan(@EisenKoubu) and Kengo-kun(@Karifean) of being spies. Though I’m kinda unsure about the last two.
I had the option of remaining silent and wait for further evidence or counter evidence to my theory, but I have decided to keep preventing risky missions as I did before instead of allowing the other team to get ahead to gain information.
Things I can’t properly explain:
- Why Haru-chan approved of Kuu-chan’s team.
- Why Masato-kun picked Kengo-kun.
I’ll start by explaining the second point you couldn’t explain: I trust Kengo for the same reason I trust you. You both have been fairly active towards finding who the spies are.
Well, there has been a case of people rejecting a team for being in a group they don’t want to be in, so I respected your decision and moved the member I trusted the most after you into the vacant spot.
Now, while it’s true that I slightly suspect Natsume, I’d never go so far as to call him a spy, but that’s my opinion.
Instead, Haruka has been quite silent later, so I have more doubts about her since she’s been keeping a low profile for quite a bit now.
Had you posted all this before I made the team official I’d have directly asked you who you wanted in the team and I’d have included them all.
Mainly because right now everyone is going to vote reject anyway and making a whole new team would have made things faster.
-------- (Can’t a place spacer cause I’m on mobile and I don’t remember how to do it) --------
Komari, you should step up your eating pace. You’ve been eating your popcorn for a long time and the bag is still half full…
Maybe you could share some 
Well while you’re all enjoying the heated discussion I’ll just officially put the voting in place. Enjoy the rest of the interesting talks~
Mission 3 Briefing
Mission name: Sukumon Rancher
Mission Leader: @Mogaoscar
Mission participants: @Mogaoscar @Karifean @cjlim2007 @RyuuTamotsu
@Glenn_Irish @Necem @RyuuTamotsu @EisenKoubu @Naoki_Saten @cjlim2007 @Mogaoscar @Arete @Natsume @Karifean
Kindly let me know whether you approve or reject to the members selected for this mission by replying to your role PM or PM-ing me on discord with either “Approve” or “Reject”. Once all votes are tallied, I’ll be revealing everyone’s votes, and continuing from there.
So I mapped out everyone’s voting patterns so far and, well, at the very least none of the members of this team are on my shortlist of major suspects. Unfortunately there are also none of the members I trust the most, besides myself for obvious reasons, so I can’t say I feel strongly either way. I believe we’re at the stage of the game where it would be quite helpful to hear everyone’s votes and their reasoning from their perspective. It’s very possible these answers are what determine what I ultimately vote for.
In particular, I’m curious to hear my fellow team members’ theories on who they believe to be the spies, or if you will, who the 4 players at the bottom of their “trustworthy” list are. So @Mogaoscar, @cjlim2007, @RyuuTamotsu, I’d very much appreciate if you shared your thoughts.
To answer your concern @Naoki_Saten, I didn’t really pay much attention to the whole statistics argument. While analyzing team members and voting patterns is of course vital I don’t think there’s much point in making an actual chance/likeliness analysis.
Also just to throw something I consider worth deliberating out there, the second vote was 8 APPROVES to the two REJECTS of Nick and cj, the vote closest to being unanimous besides the mission that ended in failure (where only Mogaoscar voted REJECT). I think it’s quite likely that there might have been exactly one spy on that team so the entire spy team APPROVED… but ultimately the spy decided it would be better to gain trust for now and laid out a SUCCESS in the end.
To be honest, while you are thinking about the most suspicious players, I’m more focused on determining the most trustworthy players, so the bottom of my list isn’t well defined and keeps changing. Even then, I’ll try to answer your question.
Haruka would be the one I suspect the most due to her not having talked for a long time.
Kyousuke is another candidate, although I’m not that sure about this one.
Now comes the realization I just had. I’ve suddenly changed my opinion about Komari. With her having set up two major theories, with one of them ending in failure with a team she created, and a second theory that includes myself and a person I trust quite a lot, I’m starting to think that she’s misleading the popular opinion towards distrusting people she’s interested in eliminating.
Why do I still think that Haruka and Kyousuke are suspicious? Well, she could well have put some of her fellow spies in there so that regardless of whether you trusted her theory or not, you’d end up trusting at least a spy.
For my final suspect I’m gonna say Rin, although I really don’t have a reason for this choice. I mean, to be honest I wouldn’t think she’s spy, but I don’t have solid reasons to trust her either.
Wow, there’s so many theories going around I feel like I should be taking notes.
If you’re saying you suspect Komari you should explain yourself a bit better. You say that you think she’s trying to turn people against Kengo and yourself, but your being Busters is only evident to yourselves. If you can reaffirm your Buster status to the rest of the team then you have more of a case against Komari, but right now it looks like you’re just trying to turn people against the person who has the highest chances of finding out the Student Counsel.
Komari has made her way to the top of my trustworthy list. I also feel good about Kud.
The people I suspect the most are Riki, Kyousuke, and Haruka, although I’m also going to be cautious around Masato. For some of the reasons I mentioned above, I don’t trust Masato because of his not-so-subtle trying to turn people against Komari. Problem with this is Masato also suspects Kyousuke and Haruka. If he’s a Student Counsel Member then either those two are Busters or he’s “suspecting” them because they seem to be popular suspects right now.
Let me explain myself better: as I said, I’m focusing more on finding trustworthy people than spies. What I mean with Komari is that I’m thinking about her in a way more cautious way now. As you said. I have no true evidence about her, so I wouldn’t like you to be influenced by my post. In fact, I’m creating most of my theories just for myself. I wouldn’t have said that about Komari if Kengo hadn’t asked.
Long story short: those are my personal opinions but I’m not solidly basing my suspicions.
I brought the snacks for everyone from the beginning. That was the first thing I said. So you can go ahead and ta-
Komari-chan’s cell phone is ringing. She takes it out and looks at the display.
It’s my roommate.
She answers the phone.
Hello? Sa-chan?
She walks a few steps away from the group. She remains within audible range but far enough not to bother anyone.
Fue? What’s wrong? What’s terrible?
(Off role)
I’m on vacation with no internet for 5 days. I hope this is not a problem with our current pace.
1 Like
Off Role
Don’t worry too much, the voting is taking some time anyway.
@Pepe, what’s the current state of the voting? Perhaps we could make a pause until Naoki comes back, if no one minds of course.
Just waiting for a few more votes 
since he isn’t a member of the team, if this gets approved, then he doesn’t need to participate; if he gets rejected, I’ll just wait for him at the next voting phase (which, judging from experience, will take another week lol)
Another round of voting, and here are the results:
@Glenn_Irish: APPROVE
@Necem: REJECT
@RyuuTamotsu: APPROVE
@EisenKoubu: APPROVE
@Naoki_Saten: REJECT
@cjlim2007: APPROVE
@Mogaoscar: APPROVE
@Arete: REJECT
@Natsume: REJECT
@Karifean: REJECT
And we have another tie. @Mogaoscar’s team has been rejected, and we’re off to the next selection of teams.
This brings the rejection counter to 2. 3 more consecutive rejections, and the Student Council wins.
Leadership has now been transferred to @Arete! Please choose 4 members to participate in the mission, and tag me in the post when you have decided.
Holy why did that take 5 days tho
Holiday season so I guess a lot of people were offline during the time.
I’m going to go with the team that has the highest chance of success, even though it might not be approved.
I’m taking myself, of course, and the two people I feel the most confident about, Komari (@Naoki_Saten), and Kud (@cjlim2007).
As I’ve already said I feel a bit suspicious about 5 of the players, and that leaves me with Mio and Kurugaya who have the next lowest odds of being spies. I personally think that Kurugaya would be the most reliable, but taking her would make this the same as Kud’s team that got rejected. Since that would mean this team would almost certainly be rejected as well, I’ll take Mio (@Glenn_Irish) instead!
This is what I’m thinking right now but since Naoki won’t be around for a couple of days I’m not locking it in quite yet, in case anyone wants to offer their opinions on it.
As of now I trust Kamikita-San quite a bit, so I have no opposition in that regard. I’m still uncertain in terms of Kudo-San, but hold no major suspicion. At the very least I have the ability to trust myself, therefore I will approve this team.
お前ゲロ犬
returns to reading
Komari-chan is smiling as her phone call progresses.
Sa-chan, even if you two had a fight, you’re still friends!
Daijoooubu! You just have to tell her how much you like her and you’ll make up in no time!
Fue? Unsightly? Not at all. Sa-chan is cute when she’s being honest.
Un. Ganbare, Sa-chan!
The call ends and Komari-chan returns to the group.
Sorry for the wait, everyone! My roommate just needed an advice.
Well then, regarding Rin-chan’s team, I have no objections.
