Kazamatsuri Plays The Resistance: Little Busters [Finished - Student Council Victory]

Events
#141

Okay to be completely honest I only said I trust you because I wanted to see you post your suggestion unfiltered. I don’t remember the last time I’ve seen someone saying “who here trusts me to pick a good team” being actually a good guy, instead it’s generally a bad guy trying to gauge whether or not it’s safe to nominate fellow bad guys or if they would instead only heap suspicion on them by virtue of nominating them at all.

Before the last failure I likely would’ve approved to confirm/deny suspicions, but this seems to be a quite critical phase for both teams since one victorious round for the busters or spies would put the other under quite hefty pressure. While I do consider some of the people on this team trustworthy, I have the unsettling feeling that at least one of them is a spy that managed to infiltrate a Buster web of trust.

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#142

Things have grown quite complicated, haven’t they?

Noumi’s presence in the previously failed mission makes me reluctant to casually accept this team. It’s entirely possible that she was the one who sank it, and if this current team fails as well then the situation will grow very dire for the Little Busters by having the council take the upper hand. As Kengo said, I’d advise being wary of people who try to gauge trust levels since it takes knowing a level of trust to be able to manipulate it. Trust must be earned, not asked for.

I am therefore voting reject. Masato, as the third member of the Little Busters, I hope you’ve muscled up enough to take the pressure of leading the potential next team to victory that weighs on your shoulders!

As for Kamikita, I agree with Kurugaya that she has been the most proactive one in trying to protect the group from intruders, which makes her less of a suspect than she was once considering how thoroughly thought-out her theories are and how she was part of the winning team, so I may reconsider my stance on this Kamikita and Saigusa matter.

#143

Since most of you are going to vote reject anyway, I see no point in posting this, but I might as well do so.

So you decided to reject the mission because you didn’t trust some people, weren’t confident in your choices… I’m going to give you a solid reason not to vote approve:

For this reasoning, I made some assumptions:

  • There are 9 players. I’m not a player cause I’m a buster, so I didn’t include myself and worked with 9 people, 4 of which are spies.

  • In the last failed mission there was only 1 spy.

Now let’s proceed onto previous known facts and team composition:

  • Members of the last mission have a 25% chance of being a spy.

  • Non-members of the last mission have a 60% chance of being a spy.

  • The team is formed by a last mission member and 3 non last mission members.

Let’s do a binomial treatment of the situation.

  • People can be either spies or not spies.

  • 3 people have a 60% chance of being spies.

  • 1 person has a 25% chance of being a spy.

Since binomial functions need a constant probability of the studied situation, let’s just study the 3 people with 60% chance for now.

We want the chance of there being 1 or more spies in between those 3 people. That chance is a 93.6%, determined by Binomial (2;3;0,4), where Binomial is the function, 2 is the number of success of the probability studied, 3 is the number of times we run the experiment (3 people in this case), and 0.4 is now the probability of them not being a spy.

Now, for the case we want, we have both that 93.6% chance of there being at least 1 spy in that group of 3, and the 25% chance of the other guy being a spy. The combinations that give 1 or more spies are:

  • Group of 3 has a spy - Other guy is a spy.

  • Group of 3 has a spy - Other guy is not a spy.

  • Group of 3 doesn’t have a spy - other guy is a spy.

If we add them all together, we end up with a final 95.2% chance of there being 1 or more spies in the group, so fuck no I’m not approving that team.

#144

I would never vote approve when everybody wants to vote approve if I’m convinced that there is a high risk of failure. The risk of that mission was high, so I decided to reject it. The reason I was on the verge of voting approve was merely because in the case it failed, I knew that I could still get important information to use afterwards, so the trade-off wouldn’t have been horrible.

I’ll wait until the voting ends, cause who knows, maybe there are more approve votes than reject votes, but I can tell you that I’m going to base my team off the statistics that give the best chance of there not being a single spy.

It was at this point, that the science club came to Masato claiming that he had been possessed by an unknown spirit that takes control of his body, personality and actions. That would explain why Masato has recently grown smarter. Further study is still required.

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#145

After thinking this through, I definitely agree with Kuu-chan’s reasoning. It’s simple but solid. After my initial conclusion has been proven at least partially wrong, I have no real reason to distrust the current team members.

In fact, I have a new theory and a plan now. I will reveal them when the time is right, and will therefore hold back in terms of overall communication for a while.

And by the way, I’m afraid we’ve all been completely ignoring Riki-kun ^^’

#146

Another round of voting has finished, and here are the results:

@Glenn_Irish APPROVE
@Necem REJECT
@RyuuTamotsu APPROVE
@EisenKoubu APPROVE
@Naoki_Saten APPROVE
@cjlim2007 REJECT
@Mogaoscar REJECT
@Arete APPROVE
@Natsume REJECT
@Karifean REJECT

With 5 for approve and 5 for reject, that leads to yet another tie! And thus @cjlim2007’s team has been rejected.

This brings the rejection counter to 1. 4 more consecutive rejections, and the Student Council wins.

Leadership has now been transferred to @Mogaoscar! Please choose 4 members to participate in the mission, and tag me in the post when you have decided.

#147

Even though the team was rejected, many people liked the team cj had put together. While I like Komari being there, I’m not confident enough with the rest of the members. Also, from statistics, the team with the least risk would be one with everyone from the failed team except one, which would be changed with me, since I know for a fact that I’m a buster. Still, since I’m quite sure that Komari isn’t a spy, I’ll include her too.

So my team comp would be @Mogaoscar (Masato), @Naoki_Saten (Komari), @RyuuTamotsu (Rki) and @cjlim2007 (Kud)

The two I left out from the team that failed are @Necem and @Natsume, the two I suspect from the most out of the 4 there were. Tell me what you think about it and I shall tell Pepe.

#148

Everyone is going to go through a phase of suspicion eventually, and it seems it is now my turn. I will try my best to convince you all of my belonging to the Little Busters!

That said, I still cannot agree to the team for the sole reason that Noumi was the reason I’d rejected the previous one in the first place. As much as I can reconsider my stance on Kamikita for her good-will and constant effort, Noumi has, so far, not actually proven an earnest attempt to protect the Little Busters and she is, to me, the member who has most likely voted “reject” due to her suspicious attempts at trust-gathering pointed out by Kengo.

Currently, the members I suspect the most are Nishizono, Saigusa and now Noumi.

Nishizono because of her weird decisions since the game began, Saigusa due to her open conflict with Kamikita early on (and subsequent silence after the rejection of her team which is more than peculiar) and Noumi due to her presence in the failing team and overall suspect attempts at communication. Should Masato go forth and still recruit her despite that, I’ll have no choice but to doubt his loyalty; suspecting me is one thing, but actively recruiting someone with such doubtful actions in a team that has already failed before and could bring the Student Council to gain a very dangerous upper hand is another, very worrying, thing.

#149

Alright fine I’ll be the one to ask the obvious question: @cjlim2007, why did you vote REJECT?

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#150

While I appreciate your opinion, @Natsume (Kyousuke), I still have a certain suspicion towards you, so I’ll refrain (wink wink) from choosing you for this mission. However, I note your concern about Kud. It looks like cj isn’t the most beloved member among us as of now.

Now that you mentioned it, @Karifean (Kengo), I’d also like to know @cjlim2007 (Kud) reasons to reject her own team. Perhaps I’ll end up giving her place in the team to someone else.

#151

Fair enough. Suspicion is to be expected to and from everyone: it’s an integral part of the game as we can’t let the Council overrun us with stress and anxiety! We wouldn’t be the Little Busters if we didn’t solve problems through fun no matter what! :kyogrin:

Agreed with Kengo, it would be nice for Noumi to explain her reasoning.

#152

Because I don’t like having to choose the team. I just chose the team I did because it was most likely to be safe in case it did pass anyways.

#153

If it was the safest in case it passed, why didn’t you vote approve?

#154

Komari-chan is sitting down and casually snacking on some popcorn.

Masato-kun, if you were to take Kuu-chan from the team, whom would you enlist instead?

#155

Well, actually the sole reason Kud is in the team is because there’s a lower probability of mission failure. If I were to take her out, the next one on my trust list would be Kengo, who gives me a good vibe. However, that would statistically make the team more risky. What do you think about it?

#156

Still eating popcorn.

I think, despite what you said, you don’t actually plan on switching out Kuu-chan. That would give the team the exact same odds of failing as Kuu-chan’s original team, which you strongly objected against based on statistics.

#157

Not really, because including myself I eliminate the possibility of one of the members being a Buster. On the other hand, while it’s true that having you out and putting in your place someone from the failed mission is statistically less risky, I’d rather have you, since I don’t think that you are a Spy.

Even then, the chance of there being a spy is still pretty high, but as of now, it’s the safest team I can create and, as such, I’ll obviously vote approve for it.

If @cjlim2007 (Kud) won’t say anything else (I’ll give you 8 hours to speak up and give a reason to have you in the team) I’ll change Kud with Kengo and post the final team officially.

#158

I’m not exactly sure if I can convince you but I have tried with all I can to be helpful for the Busters. But really anyone could say that so… I won’t bother you too much, whatever you decide is up to you. But I know what I am and I hope my actions can convince you that I am on your side. As long as you are actually a Buster of course, but I won’t doubt you too much.

#159

Yes, Masato-kun, if you go on like that, you really will “eliminate the possibility of one of the members being a Buster”.

Are you making fun of everyone here? “I am not a spy.” is not an acceptable explanation for anyone but yourself. Sure, if you really were a Buster, then, from your perspective, your Kengo-team has a higher probability (7,5%) than Kuu-chan’s had from her own perspective (5%), but that’s it. I’m using a simpler formula, by the way.

From anyone else’s point of view, those two teams have the exact same probabilities to succeed, namely 3,75%, since they both have one member of my Mission 2 team and 3 non-members respectively. You tried to convince people to reject Kuu-chan’s team based on statistics, but then you went out of your way to choose a team with the statistically lowest odds of succeeding, with other combinations yielding 10% and 12,5% respectively. That’s sophistry.

I don’t want to be part of that team and I’m rejecting it either way. I was fine with Kuu-chan’s team that was at least based on past successes.

Kuu-chan, your team was alright. We might have already won if you hadn’t rejected it.

#160

Fair enough. I’m well aware that some things only make sense to me in those statistics and that I somehow contradicted myself when choosing the team by choosing you and proposing @Karifean as a substitute for Kud, but the reason I didn’t overlook the statistics as much as when Kud formes her team was because I didn’t have any clear opinion over the people she chose, so the best thing I could do was a statistic analysis of the situation.

That said, Kud’s message made me think that she’s a good choice for the team, so that both makes me think that her team isn’t as bad as I thought it was and that she’d be high on my list of trusted people.

So I’m going to keep Kud in my team and, since Komari doesn’t want to be in this team, I’m replacing her with Kengo, who is also a good choice.

@Pepe I henceforth conclude that my team will be: @Mogaoscar (Masato), @Karifean (Kengo), @cjlim2007 (Kud) and @RyuuTamotsu (Riki).