Kazamatsuri Plays The Resistance: Little Busters [Finished - Student Council Victory]

And here’s to another round of votes!

Mission 3 Briefing
Mission name: Sukumon Rancher
Mission Leader: @Arete
Mission participants: @Arete @Naoki_Saten @cjlim2007 @Glenn_Irish


@Glenn_Irish @Necem @RyuuTamotsu @EisenKoubu @Naoki_Saten @cjlim2007 @Mogaoscar @Arete @Natsume @Karifean
Kindly let me know whether you approve or reject to the members selected for this mission by replying to your role PM or PM-ing me on discord with either “Approve” or “Reject”. Once all votes are tallied, I’ll be revealing everyone’s votes, and continuing from there.

I’m going to vote approve since I want this to keep going forward. We’ve already been a good time planning this mission unsuccessfully. It’s true that I suspect Komari quite a bit now, but if this mission doesn’t fail then I’ll have no problem in trusting her. I also said that I slightly suspected Rin, but my suspicions on her are unfounded and I really have no reason to stop a team she’s in.

Sorry again for the delay guys! Well, here’s the voting results:

@Glenn_Irish: APPROVE
@Necem: APPROVE
@RyuuTamotsu: APPROVE
@EisenKoubu: APPROVE
@Naoki_Saten: APPROVE
@cjlim2007: APPROVE
@Mogaoscar: APPROVE
@Arete: APPROVE
@Natsume: APPROVE
@Karifean: REJECT

And with a whopping 9 majority vote, this mission is finally accepted!

@Arete @Naoki_Saten @cjlim2007 @Glenn_Irish please send me a PM whether you’d like this mission to SUCCEED or FAIL, and I’ll take care of the rest :wink:

[insert mission description here]

(Sorry guys! I don’t have time right now or over the next 24 hours to write-up a mission failure story for this mission. I’ll edit this post when I do have the time though, I promise!)

MISSION FAILED


After the long rounds of voting comes bad news from the results. With 3 votes for Success and 1 vote for Failure this is another failure for the Busters team!

Current standing
Successful Missions: 1
Failed Missions: 2

The next mission is a special mission: In order to cheer up the rest of the Little Busters, they have decided to hold a Pancake Party! Because there isn’t critical about this, this mission needs 2 Failed votes in order to fail. That means, this mission will only fail if the team includes two student council lackeys.

@Natsume It’s now your job to select 5 members to join you in this mission. Choose wisely, as another failed mission means victory for the student council!


senses the heavy gloom in the air and proceeds to make tea for everyone
お前ゲロ犬
Out of character:
If I recall correctly that makes 2 failures for teams both @cjlim2007 and I were in, which certainly doesn’t leave either of us in a good position.
Both @Naoki_Saten and @Arete were involved in the first mission, which was a success, so unless that was intended to deceive us I think they have a bit more credibility than the two of us. My personal suspicion is entirely on CJ at this point, just based on the fact that he was in both this and last mission which failed. I’m not denying any hypocrisy, but based on my perspective it only makes sense haha.
Hopefully we can all have a nice pancake party together.

Allow me to present an alternate theory: @Naoki_Saten or @Arete was the spy this round and the reason the first mission failed is either 1. because there were two+ spies on the team and neither of them wanted to risk two+ FAILURE cards being played as that would’ve been greatly incriminating or 2. because the spy on the team wanted to gain trust and figured a single success would be worth that (which it totally is). If anything I find it highly suspicious that that team was so widely accepted considering the previous one got heavily rejected!

I actually don’t think @cjlim2007 was the spy on this team because he was also on the last proposed team and yet it got rejected. The spies could’ve pushed it through, but they didn’t. I think the most likely reason is that there was no spy on that team; the only other reason I can imagine is that there were two or more spies on that team, but I find that less likely to be the reason.

I also feel the need to point out the difference to cj’s proposed team. The only difference is that instead of you, Glenn, the final member was @Necem. And compared to this one, that team got nuked to hell with REJECTs. Why? The simplest explanation is of course that you were the spy that was added, giving the spies a reason to APPROVE. However I actually do think you’re innocent, in fact I think on the contrary, Necem is a spy and there would have been two spies on the previous team, and the team was rejected because of the danger of having two spies on the team.

Now that I’ve said this much I guess there’s no point in being quiet about all of this anymore at this point. I believe the spies in this game are, in order from most to least certain in my head, @Natsume, @Necem, @EisenKoubu and @Naoki_Saten.

Natsume has been on my radar for a while, and one of the reasons I trust @Glenn_Irish is because the two of them got into an argument further up which was too convincing for me to consider staged by spies. Natsume has only voted APPROVE to the three missions that were ever approved and rejected all the others. I don’t know if anyone besides me decided to track voting patterns at some point, but @Necem’s voting pattern is almost identical to @Natsume’s, differing only in Necem’s approval of the very first suggestion, which was enough to make me consider they’re probably both on the same team, and in fact, probably both spies. With relatively devided Busters, the only missions that can actually go through are the ones that have approval of the spies, i.e. missions that will likely fail, and Natsume and Necem fit this pattern to a T.

@EisenKoubu I’d love to think of as innocent, but I really can’t. Nothing personal against you man, but I’ve seen you play Secret Oyashiro and you have a tendency to go quiet when you can’t argue back against allegations because they’re actually true. In the game you actually were innocent you were rather fervent in insisting on your innocence. So that’s why I think you’re one of the spies. Eisen’s voting pattern so far is 100% APPROVE with the exception of the one mission where he wasn’t around in time btw, in case anyone’s curious.

And finally @Naoki_Saten. Really, he’s been in my blind spot for a long time since his involvement in ‘figuring out’ the spies has been incredibly convincing and still makes me want to throw him out of this circle of for and put @Arete in it in his stead. Both of them are believable candidates for the final spy, and if/when I suggest a team I won’t put either of them in it, but if I had to pick between the two of them I’m more inclined to pick Nick. For one, his voting pattern is closer to that of my higher suspicions than Arete’s, secondly he didn’t pick himself for his team (which is like why would you do that, you can’t possibly be THAT confident that you have the right people, can you? And you KNOW that you yourself are a Buster…) and thirdly… I’ll get to that in a second.

With these four Busters, let’s re-examine all the votings up to this point, shall we? First up we had a team of Glenn, Eisen and Nick which was rejected, just barely. The spies must have been divided on this vote for it to have been so close, and why would spies be divided? My best guess is that there were already two spies on the team, which some people thought was fine, others thought it wasn’t and they’d rather wait and see. The only problem and one major weak point in my interpretation as far as I can tell is the second voting which was approved by everyone but Nick and cj. Why would the spies - Natsume to be precise - suddenly decide a team with two spies in it was okay? Can’t say I know the reason, but perhaps they thought it was a good opportunity for the spies to get some trust put in them.

After that we had two teams that had both Necem and EisenKoubu in them. Eisen was already being targeted by Nick at that point (which is quite a daring move, to have a spy-vs-spy conflict, but also one that ‘implies’ that the two of them are on different teams, more or less ensuring that one of them will eventually be trusted) and Necem had already obtained some trust, so there is no benefit in having these missions go through. A lack of communication probably hurt the spies here. Either way, Necem, Natsume and Nick all rejected these two teams.

Then there was the first failure. Of my spy candidates, only Natsume was on this team so it makes sense for all spies to vote APPROVE. By the way, Nick was the one who proposed the team. Let’s not forget that. He would have easily been in a position to ensure exactly one spy was on the team. I considered it bad luck on his part at the time, and it still might have been, but I’m not convinced anymore.

The following team was cj’s which was rejected. cj was in a good position to put only one spy on the team, and yet they rejected their own team and Natsume and Necem did as well. Because there were both Nick and Necem on the team, which could’ve made things troublesome again. Perhaps Nick thought it’d be okay to have two spies on the team and they’d manage regardless… it’s very hard to tell since the spies cannot covertly communicate so there may have been conflicting interests.

Then there was @Mogaoscar’s team which was rejected by Natsume, Necem and Nick (and also Arete and me). I considered the possibility of two spies being on the team, but that would mean major conflicting interests since everyone besides me on the team voted APPROVE and yet my primary spy candidates (Natsume and Necem at that point) voted REJECT. So I thought it more likely for there to be no spy on this team and that’s why the spies rejected it, which was a major reason as to why I ended up with this particular combination of spies, since it clears Mogaoscar, cj AND RyuuTamotsu in one fell swoop. And especially the latter was still quite a big question mark for me.

Finally, that brings us to the team that just failed. Arete, Nick, cj and Glenn. One of the spy candidates on the team, check and mate, a surefire failure. The fact that Arete suggested the team made me suspicious of him, but if he is the last spy I have more trouble justifying the rejecting of the very first team. It’s not the best argument I know, but, well, who do you trust more, Arete or Nick?

So that’s my theory. As a result I can already guarantee that I will reject Natsume’s team and pick myself, @Glenn_Irish, @RyuuTamotsu, @cjlim2007 and @Mogaoscar on my turn.

To fellow Busters I’d like to just mention one thing; before you point out what you think are holes in my argument, how about letting the people I’m accusing let in a word? It would be a good bit of extra information, especially if you think I might be on to something (even if you think I’m partially incorrect).

2 Likes

So far I buy your theory, but following your advice, now it’s turn for the defense to cross examine your deductions. The only thing I’d like to mention is that the reason for such a success in this last team might have just to do with people growing tired of having to wait a week for just another team to be rejected and go back to the beginning of the mission planning.

Uweeeeh, I was wrong again. Figuring out the entire enemy team is harder than I thought. My logic isn’t working and I’ve probably lost most people’s trust for good, so I should sit back and evaluate other people’s theories instead of making my own from scratch.

Kengo-kun, your theory has solid logic behind it. As a standalone and on a purely logical level, I agree with all of it, except for the assumption of me being a spy. Luckily, the theory still works if you assume the opposite.
However, that theory also excludes one of my prime suspects, so I’m not entirely sold.

I have a way of “proving” my innocence to you:
The team of the first voting got rejected, while the second voting one was approved of by 8 people and only rejected by 2. Conclusion: These two teams did not both have had two spies on them. According to your theory, that means I’m not a spy.

For the part I disagree with, I need to ask you something, Kengo-kun:
Does it make sense for a Little Buster to go out of his way to behave in an illogical, chaotic manner? Does it seem believable to you for someone to keep “messing up” in an obvious way from the very beginning up until now? Especially if we do know he’s normally a smart person? I don’t understand how you can trust Masato-kun(@Mogaoscar) despite everything that’s happened, being a logical thinker yourself. That is the one suspect I have to give up on in order to accept your theory.

So now I’m your highest suspect, huh. Fair enough, I have messed up a lot so far.

My reasoning to approve of that particular round was simply that we needed to move things on to be certain of the situation, much like the others (which explains the majority APPROVE vote despite the number of debates going on). We were spending far too much time debating and it was destroying whatever common grounds the Little Busters could be on considering only the Council knows their members. The rest of us were turning around in circles. The previous two times were my mistake of judgement, which at this point I quite bitterly regret.

However, Kengo, you are easy to point fingers in suspicion but I’ve yet to actually see you prove your own standing as a Little Buster for this critical mission, instead assuming we think of you as one like @Mogaoscar previously did and assuming your team will pass because you doubt me. Everyone is bound to be suspicious, that is the only way we’ll figure things out after all, but you are doing so in the most peculiar way Your reasoning may be fair, but it may also be in order to mislead the others considering we’ve no clue of who are our allies. Not to mention the fact that you’re even trying to plan a team ahead before the stakes of this round are truly understood by everyone is even more astounding; Kengo, why should we trust you especially when you have a team who failed twice? Your reasoning is alike Masato’s, it goes off the assumption that everyone believes you are a Buster and therefore trusts you simply because you gave theories and people to suspect, but only you (and potential teammates) would know whether that’s true. Which makes it all the more suspicious since you picked that very person with similar reasoning and who acted in a very bizarre way.

Nishizono and @Cjlim2007 are also two odd choices because they were part of the two failing teams. Between them and Masato, one could think you’re trying to adapt to the special mission. Your reasoning of why @EisenKoubu cannot be trusted is the only thing I agree with, and that’s because it’s been painfully obvious from the beginning, but I can’t let such a popular opinion influence my thoughts on the matter. It also doesn’t work to your advantage considering that when Saigusa was still active, she was suspected to be associates with Masato which means I can’t trust him

It is one thing to prepare a team for “when mine fails”, but why don’t you actually tell us why you can be trusted as a team leader and why you think that team will prevail when it failed twice? As someone who analyses voting patterns closely and use them in his arguments, you also stand as someone who could have been very careful about theirs to not fall under suspicion, and there is the possibility that that was done willingly in order to steer team leadership towards yourself by painting me as a “spy”, making it more important than ever for you to actually explain those things.

You are betting on one half, I will bet on the other half.

@Pepe, my team stands as this one: @Natsume (myself), @Arete, Kamikita, @RyuuTamotsu, and @Necem. You may think that it confirms your idea of a spy team, Kengo, however they are the only people I can at least try to trust at this point even if Rin doubts my standing as a Little Buster. Excluding Riki, your team is filled with people who have had more than bizarre attitudes and actions throughout the game, who associated with the most suspicious people despite not being the most trust-worthy person yourself, and has two who might’ve caused our disadvantage in the first place. I cannot bring myself to trust it at all even based on your theories, especially when it goes off on the idea that I am a spy.

Off-role:

Tagging @Naoki_Saten and @Glenn_Irish, doing so in my in-role post was breaking the formatting :yahaha:

1 Like

uuuu… I really messed up, and I felt good about my team too…

Other than the fact that you think I might be a spy, I’m having trouble finding any straight up holes in your logic. I’m not sure if I’ll approve or reject your team yet though. I’m going to have to take another look at how people interacted with one another before I can clear Masato, and I think your reasons for trusting Mio may be a bit too weak.

I will go ahead and take this moment to explain my thought process from throughout the game though, so maybe that can convince you I’m innocent.

The first round I approved out of an ignorance for the game. I thought that spies would have a greater reason to reject since 5 rejected teams in a row means loss, but as cj pointed out to me I was mistaken here.
The second team I approved as well. Since I was on the team and knew I was a Buster, I figured this team would have a higher chance to succeed then one I’m not on, and after the mission succeeded I wanted to keep things moving along so I approved the next team as well.
The fourth round was when Komari and Haruka started going after each other, and like I said in the post I made at the time, I didn’t feel comfortable with either of them on the team until I could find out more.
After this point I got pretty stuck in my ways. If Komari is a spy and her argument with Haruka was staged then I fell for it. I thought if Haruka is a spy, then Komari must be a Buster.
Everything else I’ve tried to be transparent about in my posts.

Anyway, I’ve suspected Kyousuke for a while myself so I’m going to be rejecting this round too. Things seems pretty tense right now and we’re only one failure away from losing, so I can’t imagine any Busters would take the risk and approve Kyousuke’s team until things can cool down.

These were extraordinary counter-arguments, unfortunately, I’m said to be a spy in both of them, which is a shame… Either way, I’d like to but in to clear some points I’d like to ask about all these last theories. Let’s start assuming that Kengo’s theory is correct, and let’s try to destroy that theory using Komari, Rin and Kyousuke’s counter-arguments:


Komari

  • Everything is fine except that I should be marked as a spy because I’m chaotic and I’ve messed up quite a bit, even though I’m normally smart (thanks :yukismil:).
  • According to her, she isn’t a spy.
  • She isn’t spy because:

Question time: Could you further expand on how you got to that conclusion in the text I quoted?


Kyousuke

  • Initial conclusion from Kengo is unfounded because the votes changed due to people wanting to move forward in the game.
  • Lack of trust towards Kengo, which renders his theory as doubtful and misleading.
  • People that have been in teams that failed are in his team composition for the voting after this one.

Now onto my comments: Kyousuke is mainly saying that Kengo can’t be trusted and thus his theory is misleading. Moreover, there are more options that can work as theories. However, the same that Kyousuke said about Kengo’s theory can be said about Kyousuke’s:

Komari already did explain herself on why she’s not a spy, you are asking Karifean to do it, but what about you? What renders you more trustworthy than Karifean in this aspect?

Additionally, I’d like to clarify that when I said that I was a Buster, I’m by no means forcing in you the fact that I am one. I claim it and leave it up to you to believe it or not. The fact I mention it (I guess guess that Karifean also did it because of this) is because it obviously justifies why we put ourselves in our teams.

I think I already cleared this up. I mean, I can understand your suspicion by saying that I’m chaotic, but I won’t accept you suspecting on me relating me to Saigusa, just because I mentioned her randomly to be able to make a joke in which I mentioned a member twice in my first post and people thought that because that didn’t match Masato’s behavior, I was related to her in some way.


Rin

  • In general, agrees with Kengo in his theory.
  • Mio’s trustworthiness is weakly founded.
  • Claims that she isn’t a spy.
  • To prove that she isn’t a spy, she explains her line of thought during the whole game

While I can’t disagree with any of Rin’s points, I’d like to ask her for a way to prove your innocence in an absolute way. I mean, try to line out a couple of things you’ve done and why those things directly point in the direction of you being a Buster. Actually I’d like everyone to do this in a similar fashion. From then on, we can start analyzing those explanations and adding up more facts over time, but having a simple point to start off is easier (and more effective in my opinion) than having a ton of information to base yourself off of, mainly because if there’s a greater amount of information there are more interpretations that can be given to it.


Conclusions

  • Komari agrees with Kengo and throws me in as a suspect for chaotic behavior and justifies her innocence inside the context of Kengo’s theory.

  • Kyousuke calls bullshit on almost the entirety of Karifean’s theory because he doesn’t trust him and he claims that there are other alternatives for spies.

What do I say about this? Well, for now I haven’t got a well founded opinion, but I’ll disregard Kyousuke’s arguments because they as just as unfounded as Karifean’s (at least for now). The only thing I agree with him in is about the reason this last team was approved: people wanting to get the game going forward and not stay in the same spot for another round.

Komari on the other hand, agrees with Karifean and says that I’m a suspect. Since Kyousuke also says that I’m a spy, I’ll prove my innocence in a similar way of how Komari did:

  • If we take the missions that failed, I voted Approve on this last one. I state that I that for the same reason may people did and that I’ve already explained a couple of times: I wanted the game to move forward. It’s up to you to believe me in this point or not, but if you doubt me because of this, you should doubt everyone who voted approve on this mission as well.

  • In the first failed mission, I voted reject. I was the only one to vote reject. In a situation where the Busters where already leading, it would be very weird for a spy to vote reject considering that the voting have been very close with many teams being rejected because the voting ended in ties. Not only that, but from a Buster’s point of view, voting approve wasn’t a bad idea because we needed information at that point, however, I opposed the team for it being based off very early accusations with a lack of well founded arguments. All in all, many Buster’s would have voted approve and the spies were practically forced to do so. If anyone was to reject that mission it must’ve have been a Buster.


Regarding my chaotic behavior

I’ve faced each decision in each voting in different ways mainly because every one of them seemed to be the best approach for me at the time. While you may think that I’m chaotic, it is because I mainly base myself off of recent information and only use past information a bit, hence disregarding some things that may be in your theories. Nonetheless, these are all logic I write for the sake of writing. Think of my conclusions whatever you want to think about them. My main objective when I’ve written analysis and justified my actions hasn’t been to make you accept my opinion. My main objective has always been to justify my actions, so that if someone says “why did Masato do that?”, that someone has some information to know why I did that. The only time I’ve tried to impose my way of thinking was when I posted all those probabilities about CJ’s team.

Even then, when I’ve announced someone to be suspicious, many times I’ve stated that I wasn’t very sure about them, so if change them and then suspect someone else, don’t tell me that I’m chaotic because of that if I’m stating that I’m not sure about my own conclusions. If I lack confidence in my conclusions, it’s only natural for me to change my suspects constantly.

Also, some of the times I’ve been suspected for chaotic behavior by Komari was when my choices and actions didn’t make sense in her theories, but the last theory she proposed has none of her suspects on this last failing team. The conclusion is obvious: Komari’s theory had holes, and as such, her claims of me behaving strangely at that time are unfounded.

With this, I hope to have given you some explanations you might have been looking for. If you want to say something else about my chaotic behavior, I’d please ask you to give me an specific example of that behavior and I’ll explain my logic behind that action.

You know its not that simple. If proving you aren’t a spy was that trivial then we wouldn’t be losing right now. I know I’ve been very wishy-washy this game and have changed who I trust and who I suspect a lot. That’s why I posted my thought process, so people can understand WHY I’ve moved around a bit. But I do understand that to anyone else, I could be lying. I haven’t exactly been one of the frontrunners in making theories. Most of the game I’ve just been following along and piecing together other people’s theories to decide who to trust and who to doubt. Kengo said he isn’t going to be taking me on any missions, and I can hardly blame him. But he doesn’t seem very sure about me being a spy either, so I hope he and the rest of the Busters at least continue to hear me out. And speaking of hearing me out…

[quote=“Mogaoscar, post:191, topic:3477”]
In the first failed mission, I voted reject. I was the only one to vote reject. In a situation where the Busters where already leading, it would be very weird for a spy to vote reject considering that the voting have been very close with many teams being rejected because the voting ended in ties. Not only that, but from a Buster’s point of view, voting approve wasn’t a bad idea because we needed information at that point, however, I opposed the team for it being based off very early accusations with a lack of well founded arguments. All in all, many Buster’s would have voted approve and the spies were practically forced to do so. If anyone was to reject that mission it must’ve have been a Buster.[/quote]

I cannot agree with the leaps in logic you made there at all. You said it yourself that most of the Busters were going to vote approve. Even before the voting took place it was easy to tell that people were tired of waiting and were going to push the team through. Just by reading the mood you could tell the team was going to get a grand majority. A big enough majority that someone voting for reject wouldn’t change anything. A spy would have known the team was going to fail and could have voted reject to make themselves look good while knowing that the team would get approved anyway. Now this is far from empirical evidence that you’re a spy but it does not make you look nearly as innocent as you may think it does. On the contrary it makes you look like you knew the team was going to fail. Especially because after the team was approved you said you were “on the verge of choosing Approve.” If you really doubted the team that much you would have been vocal about it beforehand.

Glad to see the interesting discussion going on~ As a moderator I’m not allowed to speak, but I like the way all of you are analyzing this game :wink: So now, let’s continue!

Mission 4 Briefing
Mission name: Poppin’ Pancake Party
Mission Leader: @Natsume
Mission participants: @Natsume, @Arete, @Naoki_Saten, @RyuuTamotsu, @Necem


@Glenn_Irish @Necem @RyuuTamotsu @EisenKoubu @Naoki_Saten @cjlim2007 @Mogaoscar @Arete @Natsume @Karifean
Kindly let me know whether you approve or reject to the members selected for this mission by replying to your role PM or PM-ing me on discord with either “Approve” or “Reject”. Once all votes are tallied, I’ll be revealing everyone’s votes, and continuing from there. Please remember that for this mission, it takes two to fail the mission, so keep that in mind when you vote.

Rin (@Arete), as you said, I know that it’s not that simple and that if it was this game would have been already over. However, I believe that if we all do so we will be able to everyone analyze everyone’s “alibis” (not really an alibi though) and start creating theories in common.

Basically, what I want to happen is what I did and what you answered: I post why I’m not a spy and you say why I could be. Then, I tell you another reason for me being a Buster and you try to prove me wrong, until we get to a point where it’s undoubtably evident (with a certain small margin of risk) to call that the subject is a Lackey or a Buster.


Now on to clarifying the points you counter-argued.

The team on that mission was based of a very early theory that had a very high chance of having not simple holes, but craters in it. I think I had previously openly disagreed with that theory too. While I said that voting approve wasn’t a bad idea either and more Busters could have voted approve that in other missions, a spy would never vote reject on a mission if they are risking putting themselves in a 2-0 disadvantage, which would force the last two missions to include 2 spies in the team.

I can’t prove anything further than this in this particular matter, but once again, I encourage you to question me so I can provide any further information


About this particular voting, I agree with you, Rin. I’m also voting Reject for the same reasons, and even more now that Kyousuke is the centre of Kengo’s theory.

Sorry, Kyousuke-san(@Natsume), but I’m definitely rejecting your team. I’m still suspecting you for the reasons I explained when Masato-kun was the leader, which also means that, by process of elimination, Rin-chan must be the one who failed the most recent mission. With two suspects on the team, put together by one of them, I can’t possibly support it.
Also, you’re saying Kengo-kun can’t be trusted because he didn’t prove otherwise and there’s suspicious people on his team, so you’ll do mostly the opposite of what he’s doing and make a team of people you vaguely trust. My suspicions aside, that sounds like you don’t have a proper plan.

To be more precise, that was the time when Haru-chan started arguing back. Up until then, it was just me one-sidedly accusing her. The weird part is that nobody even asked me why I was suspicious of her in the first place. It took a long time for anyone to openly suspect me even though I’ve been acting suspiciously before the first voting even began.

Now then, Masato-kun(@Mogaoscar) is playing dumb again, so I’m supposed to explain not only my reasoning, but other people’s as well…

First of all, plese stop pointing out that “Person A is claiming they’re not a spy” like that’s a meaningful thing to say. You’re the only one who’s using such claims to support your reasoning, which is a weird, pointless thing to do, and therefore part of your chaotic behavior.

I’m not saying that everything is fine about Kengo-kun’s theory. It’s logical in itself, but not distrusting you is pretty damn suspicious in my eyes. Also, if you are a spy, Kengo-kun is wrong about at least one spy, which puts big cracks into his reasoning. At that point, I’d only agree with him to 50%.

My “proof” of not being a spy only works in accordance with Kengo-kun’s theory, which he had already explained. So it’s not a “global” alibi.
To repeat, Kengo-kun says that

  • either Rin-chan or Komari-chan is a spy (probably Komari). Said spy failed the latest mission.
  • Kyousuke-kun, Haru-chan, and Yui-chan are spies.
    He also says that
  • all the teams that got accepted only did so due to the support of the spies
  • the spies did not vote unanimously on the first voting (he explained this part back when I was the leader)
  • it’s weird that the team of the first voting got rejected while the one in the second voting was accepted. According to his theory, the respective teams look like this:

first voting/round 1 team:

  • Mio-chan (Leader)
  • Haru-chan - spy
  • Komari-chan - spy
    rejected 5:5
    rejected by Kyousuke-san

second voting/round 2 team:

  • Yui-chan - spy
  • Rin-chan
  • Komari-chan - spy
    accepted 8:2
    approved by Kyousuke-san

Meaning that both teams had 2 spies each. So if the teams are equal in that sense, why would the spies reject one but accept the other? They should either accept two-spy teams or reject two-spy teams.
I conclude that the votes were different because these teams were not equal in the first place and did not both have two spies on them.
Again, according to Kengo-kun’s theory, either me or Rin-chan is a spy, Yui-chan is a spy and Mio-chan is a buster. If the first two teams are not equal in their number of spies, it means that I can’t be a spy.

Now to Masato’s reason:

This excuse is null because by the time you had cast your vote, it was already clear the team would be accepted. Why? Because I took some time to ask people about their opinions on the team I was planning. I even went out of my way to not join my own team in order to get it approved by those who disagreed with the idea of me being on a team (namely Kyousuke-san and Rin-chan). Only when it was clear that the team would get through the voting did I officially declare it. The only way for the team to get rejected after all would be due to those who have agreed beforehand to break their word, which would cast a lot of suspicion on them.

Masato-kun(@Mogaoscar), the reasons why I call your behavior chaotic are different from what you assume. I did not forget that part and I’ll get to that later.

Now a compilation of Masato-kun’s(@Mogaoscar) chaotic behavior episodes.

1.First voting. Nominating and supporting Haru-chan is one thing, but vehemently defending her when she’s being suspected is definitely weird.
In a situation where Komari-chan is openly accusing Haru-chan at a time where there’s barely any information, people would normally do one of these:

  • Agree with Komari-chan and start suspecting Haru-chan openly or secretly
  • Disagree with Komari-chan and start suspecting Komari-chan openly or secretly
  • wait and see. If curious, maybe ask the parties to give their reasons

Masato-kun did none of that. He started openly defending Haru-chan. If he’s a buster, that’s an irrational thing to do. A buster does not know the other player’s identities. Why defend someone who might stab you in the back later? If the suspicion Haru-chan remains or intensifies, you will be suspected as well. How does it make sense to give fellow busters a reason to distrust you, and gain nothing in return?

2.First voting. Masato-kun’s behavior is all over the place. In one post, he’s picking a fight with Kengo-kun, in the next, he’s praising him, and so on. People have pointed out that he’s behaving in a weird way but he does NOT fix it.

3.Fifth voting. After I have put together a theory and a team based on his behavior, Masato-kun makes a big declaration and explains that his previous behavior was due to bad acting. Says his actions were based on roleplay-related reasons. That’s irrational. I have trouble believing that anyone could screw up so badly, but at least he’ll pay more attention to his behavior, right?

4.Sixth and seventh voting. Insists that Kuu-chan’s team has too low a chance of being accepted and presents his calculations. Appeals to others to reject the team for that reason. Declares that he’ll make his own team based on statistics and pick the constellation with the highest probability. Proceeds to pick the team with the lowest possible probability. Picks Kuu-chan for his team only to suspect her shortly after, because Kyousuke-san, whom Masato suspects, said that Kuu-chan is suspicious. Keeps Kuu-chan on the team in the end.
Insists that his chances of success are better than that of Kuu-chan’s team because he’s a buster. The calculatioins he presents are made from his standpoint, with the assumption that he is a buster. Does not provide calculations from a neutral standpoint. From a neutral standpoint, his team has the exact same probability as Kuu-chan’s team.
But the weirdest part is this: By comparing two calculations, one about Masato-kun’s team with the assumption that he is a buster and one about Kuu-chan’s team with the assumption that she is a buster, you would notice that Masato’s team indeed has the better chances. But Masato-kun never mentioned this. That is the one and only reason why his team might be better than Kuu-chan’s, but he never used it to promote his team. Instead, he said “because I’m a buster”.
This is not the behavior of a buster following up on his promises. But it’s also not the behavior of a spy trying to mislead everyone. Nobody will believe him just because he claims to be a buster. He also acts suspiciously in an obvious way by breaking his promise. It’s irrational, chaotic behavior.

Masato-kun, let me make this crystal-clear since you still don’t seem to understand it. This is not just your problem. If you’re a buster and you’re behaving weirdly, you’re making fellow busters suspect you and you’re diverting their attention. In other words, you’re confusing and sabotaging your own team for no good reason.

I refrained from saying this back when I was the leader because that may have sounded too offensive and because I expected you to behave normally after you have “admitted” making mistakes. But nothing has changed since then. If you were to turn out to be a buster, I would have to blame you for a lot of things.

So, due to this irrational and chaotic behavior, I have to suspect Masato-kun and assume that he’s trying to confuse people while attracting attention. I also don’t understand why someone like Kengo-kun would not find his behavior suspicious.

There were times when Masato-kun would not move according to my theories, which seemed strange, or like an attempt to confuse me, but said theories were already proven wrong by the outcomes of the last two missions, so this part is unrelated to the chaotic behavior I’m talking about now.

I didn’t defend her in game. Since at that stage I didn’t have any well founded opinion on anyone, I thought that in the LB universe Haruka would be a good choice for that mission. I already said this however when I stated my problems playing this game while trying to role-play as Masato and thinking about this as a real situation in the Little Busters’ school complex.


I picked a fight with Kengo because Masato is supposed to be in a bad relation with Kengo. Then I praise him because I truly think that what he said at that moment made sense. By the way, your conception of praising is.

In my opinion I just agreed with his comment. I didn’t say anything major about him. I myself wouldn’t consider something like this like praising another person…

At no point did I say that I wouldn’t change my believes suddenly from that point on. I just said that I wouldn’t make any messes when it comes to role-playing. By the way, when it comes down to role-playing, it’s not just that I’m not used to it. It’s literally that it’s my first time role-playing and thought of all this as if I really had to be Masato at the beginning. You can ask @Natsume about this. We were once discussing about how roleplaying works and how I found it difficult to do it (and still do) way before this game even started.

Also, finding my explanation irrational is what really is irrational. My explanation perfectly covers all of my misbehaviors carried out up to that point. If anything, you can doubt my credibility of what I said, but it’s completely foul to call it irrational.


As I noted in my last post, all the logic I’ve been using is a justification of my actions. It’s not meant to be 100% valid to you. I made pure statistics for Kud’s team, and I made my team basing myself off of statistics and changed a bit of it with people I really trust. If someone makes statistics for himself to take decisions, it’s only natural that you include your condition of buster or spy into the calculations for better precision. Of course, this render the statistics only valid for me, so for the rest, I just say: Do you trust me? If so believe my statistics. You don’t trust me: no use in making neutral statistics since you are going to interpret it as if I was misleading you.

When I say that I’m a buster (condition that I used in my calculations), that’s the only natural conclusion.

Then again: “At no point did I say that I wouldn’t change my believes suddenly from that point on. I just said that I wouldn’t make any messes when it comes to role-playing.” If you consider my logic from that “promise” onwards stupid, then please do so, but at no point did I break any promises.

Here’s a link to that post I made explaining myself in case anyone is interested in reading it again.


So you openly suspect me and I’m supposed to keep my mouth shut? There’s a voting and I’m not supposed to explain my reasons to vote what I vote? I have to make a team and I’m unable to use whichever judgement and logic I want to use?

All I want to do is give explanations of my actions. Sorry if I change my team comp or if I don’t trust myself too much when it comes down to designating suspects.

I guess I should be very sure about my choices and well found them on faulty logic, but as it’s been proven, that leads only to failed missions…

However, if your objective all the game long has been to shut me down for some reason you’ve accomplished it. I’m gonna keep my mouth shut for the rest of the game unless someone specifically asks me something. I’ll quit explaining my decisions.

sigh
How many times did you misinterpret my words now?

The most important part first: I’ve never intended to make you clam up and not explain yourself. I said you’re causing trouble if you’re behaving suspiciously which in turn means that if you’re a buster you’re supposed to maintain trustworthiness. Reducing communication has the opposite effect. You’ll simply become easier to accuse.

I guess I should’ve done the same as last time and leave out that particular paragraph. Sorry if I hurt you. I’ve overstepped my bounds.

The irrational part was your behavior, not your explanation of it. The explanation is completely rational and works perfectly. I can assume it’s a lie, meant to cover up everything you did previously, but I have no way of undermining the explanation itself, just as you said. I simply find it hard to believe that someone would behave irrationally for such a long time. It can be said that I’m just really bad with things that aren’t logical to me.
But I’ll make sure to ask @Natsume when this is over.

What I’m referring to by “promise” is your claim that you would put together a team with the highest statistical odds. It’s not related to what you said about roleplaying.

Once again, please don’t go silent. You started the whole “prove your alibi until it’s evident” thing and I think it’s worth trying. You should pull it through until the end.

And here’s the next round of voting. Had to skip again for the sake of speed but we reached a majority anyways.

@Glenn_Irish: REJECT
@Necem: REJECT
@RyuuTamotsu: APPROVE
@EisenKoubu: MIA
@Naoki_Saten: REJECT
@cjlim2007: REJECT
@Mogaoscar: REJECT
@Arete: REJECT
@Natsume: APPROVE
@Karifean: REJECT

And this team stays put where it is. Now for the next one!

Leadership has now been transferred to @Karifean! Please choose 5 members to participate in the mission, and tag me in the post when you have decided.